The outlook for the S&P 500's dividends in the current and remaining quarters of 2025 saw small changes in the month since we last presented a snapshot of their future. The changes were mixed overall, with the total change over all future quarters we previously covered netting out to zero.

Our last snapshot of the CME Group's S&P 500 Quarterly Dividend Index' Futures quotes was taken on 15 September 2025. The new snapshot is from Wednesday, 15 October 2025. Here is a short summary of the changes over the month-long interval between the snapshots:

• 2025-Q3: Finalized at $19.64 per share, no change.
• 2025-Q4: Increase of $0.02, rising to $19.90 per share
• 2026-Q1: Decrease of $0.02, dipping to $20.90 per share

We're also introducing the outlook for the second quarter of 2026 in our presentation this month, for which the CME Group's futures project quarterly dividends of $19.72 per share.

The following chart presents the S&P 500's quarterly dividends per share as provided by dividend futures contracts from 2023-Q1 through 2026-Q2.

Overall, the dividend outlook in future quarters is improving over time, with the projections for each quarter coming in higher than the same quarter in preceding years. At the same time, the projected rate of dividend growth for future quarters is slowing.

We've focused on presenting the dividend futures data for the current quarter (2025-Q4) and the next two quarters (2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2) because the S&P 500 investors have focused their attention on these quarters in recent weeks.

More About Dividend Futures Data

How changes in the outlook for dividends at specific points of time in the future contribute to changes in stock prices is described by this math.

For this series, we have been taking a snapshot of the CME Group's S&P 500 quarterly dividend futures data shortly after the second or third week of each month.

Dividend futures indicate the amount of dividends per share to be paid out over the period covered by each quarter's dividend futures contracts, which start on the day after the preceding quarter's dividend futures contracts expire and end on the third Friday of the month ending the indicated quarter. As determined by dividend futures contracts, the now "current" quarter of 2025-Q4 began on Saturday, 20 September 2025 and will end on Friday, 19 December 2025. From the perspective of dividend futures, the next quarter of 2026-Q1 will begin on Saturday, 22 December 2025.

Because dividend futures are tied to options contracts that run on this schedule, that makes these figures different from the quarterly dividends per share figures that are reported by Standard and Poor. S&P reports the amount of dividends per share paid out during regular calendar quarters after the end of each quarter. This term mismatch accounts for the differences in dividends reported by both sources, with the biggest differences between the two typically seen in the first and fourth quarters of each year.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "A crystal ball with the word 'SP 500' written inside it". And 'Dividends' written above it, which we added.

The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) continued bouncing around on headlines related to the U.S. and China's trade actions against each other. This week, the index rose 1.7% as investors perceived the trade news to be more favorable, as the S& 500 rose to close out the trading week ending Friday, 17 October 2025 at 6,664.01.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve officials gave stronger indications they will act to cut the Federal Funds Rate at the end of the month. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool projects a greater than 99% probability of two more quarter point cuts in 2025, coming on 29 October (2025-Q4) and 10 December (2025-Q4). In 2026, the FedWatch tool forecasts a slower pace for additional rate cuts, with better than 50% probabilities for quarter point rate cuts on 28 January (2026-Q1) and then not again until 17 June (2026-Q2).

The main focal point for forward-looking investors remains the Fed's plans to cut rates in 2026. The latest update of the alternative futures chart reveals the S&P 500's trajectory remains consistent with the dividend futures-based model projections for where the S&P 500 would be expected to be when investors fix their attention on 2026-Q2 as they set current day stock prices, though the trajectory is falling in the lower half of the expected range for that investing time horizon:

Here are the market moving headlines investors absorbed throughout the trading week.

Monday, 13 October 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Trump downplays rift with China, says U.S. 'wants to help'
• Oil settles higher as US, China try to de-escalate trade tensions
• OPEC points to smaller 2026 oil supply deficit as OPEC+ pumps more
• US Treasury chief says government shutdown is hitting economy
• Amazon to hire 250,000 workers during holiday season for third straight year
• Fed minions say they expect to cut rates again and also that they'll do something about inflation if there is any:
• Fed's Paulson anticipates more rate cuts to support job market
• Fed's Paulson says Fed would react to burst of inflation
• Growth signs, tariff war developing in China:
• China ‘not afraid of trade war,’ accuses U.S. of ‘double standard’ for rare earths retaliation
• China's exports top forecast but fresh US trade spat raises risks to outlook
• China's car sales pick up speed in 'Golden September'
• Wall Street rebounds as Trump softens rhetoric on China exports control tensions
• Wall Street ends sharply higher on Trump China comments; Broadcom surges
• Broadcom surges after OpenAI deal for 10 gigawatts of custom AI accelerators

Tuesday, 14 October 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• US banking giants buoyed by dealmaking, but warn of asset price bubbles
• Oil settles down 1.5% on US-China trade tensions, IEA warning of glut
• US oil futures backwardation narrows to 20-month low on mounting fears of a glut
• Oil executives flag increased costs from Trump's tariffs
• World oil market to see huge glut in 2026, IEA says
• Oil bosses expect market surplus to shrink over time
• Fed minions set out case for more rate cuts, end of quantitative tightening policies:
• Fed's Powell says economy may be on firmer footing, but job market weak
• Fed's Powell says the end of balance sheet drawdown process may be nearing
• Fed's Powell addresses economy pulled between risks to growth, jobs and prices
• Fed's Collins still favors additional rate cuts to aid job market
• Fed's Bowman expects two more interest rate cuts this year
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• China is making it harder to get rare earth magnet export licenses, sources say
• US, China roll out tit-for-tat port fees, threatening more turmoil at sea
• US tariffs on China on Nov 1 depend on Beijing's actions, USTR Greer tells CNBC
• Trump mulls ending some trade ties with China, including in relation to cooking oil
• ECB minions looking to US for leadership as bigger trade trouble develops in Eurozone:
• World needs U.S. engagement for financial stability, ECB's Villeroy says
• China's rare earth curbs put Europe's auto industry at risk, Italian lobby says
• EU seeks US alliance to counter China rare earth crackdown
• S&P 500, Nasdaq end lower amid U.S.-China trade war concerns
• Wall Street ends mixed; banks rally on upbeat results
• Gold rises to another record, and traders see potential to rise as high as $5,000/oz

Wednesday, 15 October 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil rises with US-China trade tensions in focus
• Trump administration to set price floors to combat China’s market manipulation
• US economic activity little changed, employment stable in recent weeks, Fed says
• US retail sales likely rose in September; higher-income consumers drive growth
• Fed minions see early sign of liquidity problems, room for rate cuts:
• US banks tap Fed repo facility as overnight rates climb, signaling funding strain
• Fed's Collins still favors additional rate cuts to aid job market
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• Deflationary pressures persist in China on weak demand, overcapacity
• China to keep its 'all about production' economic playbook as rivalry with US intensifies
• ECB minions say they need to see bigger shocks before changing Eurozone interest rates again:
• ECB should only cut rates further if new shocks hit, Dolenc says
• S&P 500, Nasdaq eke out gains as earnings lift markets, gold reaches $4.2K
• S&P 500 ends higher after strong bank earnings, chip stocks rally

Thursday, 16 October 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil drops 1%, settles at 5-month lows as Trump-Putin summit looms
• US homebuilder sentiment hits 6-month high; economy uncertainty clouds housing outlook
• Fed minions getting on board with more rate cuts, worry about China:
• Fed's Waller on board for an October rate cut, as Miran again presses for aggressive easing
• Fed's Waller: Available data show ongoing labor weakness, bolstering rate cut case
• Fed's Miran: Growth next year could hinge on how U.S.-China tensions are resolved - Fox Business
• Fed policymakers' focus on tariffs makes central bank seem political: Miran
• Fed's Barkin: Consumers are spending, but not as flush as in pandemic years
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• China's retailers extend Singles' Day to five weeks to revive spending
• BOJ minions want more data to support plans to hike rates:
• Bank of Japan chief signals need for more data in deciding October move
• Hawkish Bank of Japan policymaker calls for more rate hikes
• ECB minions say they shouldn't act to change rates when inflation data changes by small amounts:
• ECB must not overengineer policy on small inflation deviations, Kocher says
• Wall Street slides on trade war concerns, bank loans reports, ongoing U.S. shutdown
• Wall Street ends down; Zions sparks worries about regional banks
• Jefferies, Zions, Western Alliance sink, leading regional bank stocks down on credit risk concern
• Gold hits another record with bank worries in focus alongside trade, rate cuts

Friday, 17 October 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Trump says 100% tariffs on China not sustainable, still plans to meet Xi
• Oil set for weekly loss on uncertainty over global supply outlook
• Fed minions thinking economy may not be slowing as much as they think, still lining up to cut rates again:
• Fed's Kashkari: Economy may not be slowing as much as we think
• Fed's Musalem leans toward supporting October interest rate cut
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• Exclusive: WTO chief urges US, China to de-escalate trade war, or risk long-term hit to global growth
• China expected to keep benchmark lending rates steady despite renewed Sino-US tensions
• In China, global companies struggle as home-grown brands steal thunder
• Japan banks going crypto, BOJ minions say they'll hike Japan's interest rates if their forecasts are right:
• Japan's top banks to jointly issue stablecoin, Nikkei says
• BOJ to raise rates if economy aligns with forecasts, deputy governor says
• Japan's core inflation likely re-accelerated in September: Reuters poll
• ECB minions say they're done with Eurozone interest rate cuts:
• More ECB rate cuts increasingly unlikely, Wunsch says
• Wall Street overcomes worries on regional banks' health, government shutdown carries on
• Wall Street ends higher as investors digest Trump trade comments
• Wall Street banks regain ground after global rout on credit worries

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool projection of real GDP growth in the U.S. during the current quarter of 2025-Q3 held steady +3.8% with data reports on hold because of the Senate Democrats' ongoing refusal to allow a vote to fund government operations.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bull and bear watching a tennis match between the US and China on a court that says 'TARIFF WAR'".

Outside the Box Thinking celebrates technology that both breaks the rules of convention and that, for one reason or another, will not be patented. Today's featured innovation meets both those requirements and could, for the right person, be an ideal Christmas gift!

Let's start with the basics. It's a battery-powered, handheld flashlight. Something that most people will be very familiar with because the basic flashlight design has been around for decades. If you close your eyes and think of a flashlight, you'll almost certainly envision a small cylindrical tube that easily fits in your hand, which has a glass-covered lamp on one end, is hollow except for the batteries that power it, and which you operate with switch on the outside of the tube.

So when we tell you today's featured innovation is a double-barreled flashlight, that description alone should clue you in that something very different is happening with this device. And that's before we even mention this flashlight, which has been inspired by the design of binoculars, uses lasers to project a "highly focused, ultra-long-range beam" that outperforms today's conventional flashlight technology.

And then it's also waterproof and very damage resistant.

What's more, it's a Kickstarter project that's still in its fundraising phase, but which has already surpassed it's funding goal, so it will be made. Here's their video pitch:

If all goes as its creators plan, it will ship in December 2025. As far as we can tell, the downside is that it's expensive. Even so, the Kickstarter project's funding phase has another two weeks to go and, at this writing, it's still possible to get in on the early bird specials. Which are still expensive, but are a big discount to what the creators indicate would be the regular retail price. If you could buy it in a store.

That's how outside the box this flashlight is.

The climbing limo method of forecasting future GDP in the United States projects the nation's economic output in the recently finished third quarter of 2025 will be around $30.9 trillion.

This estimate assumes the momentum the U.S. economy recorded in growing between 2024-Q2 and 2024-Q4 will be sustained through the current quarter. Since the U.S. economy's momentum has been slowing however, it's likely 2025-Q3's will come in below that value, which is not adjusted for inflation.

That's the same scenario we anticipated for 2025-Q2's finalized GDP estimate, which the following chart indicates held even as the BEA revised all the GDP data used to create the climbing limo forecasts.

Because the BEA revised all its GDP data going back to the first quarter of 2020, this chart shows the climbing limo GDP forecasts as if that data had been available throughout the period it covers.

Generally speaking, the BEA revised its nominal GDP data for all quarters from 2020-Q1 through 2025-Q1 upward by varying amounts, with the largest adjustments in the period from 2023-Q3 through 2025-Q1.

Looking at the recently released estimate for 2025-Q2, the climbing limo method had forecast GDP would clock in at about $30.58 trillion, which after the BEA's revisions, is now shown as nearly $30.76 trillion. The BEA's now official estimate of GDP for this quarter is $30.49 trillion. The official estimate came in lower than both the original and revised forecasts.

The climbing limo forecasting method is a "momentum"-based projection. As such, even when recorded GDP deviates considerably from the forecast values that are projected three quarters ahead in time, it provides valuable information in confirming the economy's underlying momentum has changed. For much of the period the chart shows, it confirms the U.S. economy's growth momentum has been slowing since its initial recovery from 2020's Coronavirus Pandemic Recession.

References

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. National Income and Product Accounts. Table 1.1.5. Gross Domestic Product. [Online Database]. Accessed 26 September 2025.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "Image of a long limousine driving up a bumpy area chart labeled 'GDP'".

Believe it or not, the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) has mostly behaved in an orderly manner since the end of 2023.

Mostly. The index experienced a brief outbreak of chaos during 2025, which proved to be little more than an outlier in a longer period of order. That brief outbreak coincided with two major market events:

• The brief 622 point deflation of the AI bubble between 19 February 2025 and 13 March 2025 after the reveal of China's DeepSeek AI system "broke" what had been a virtual AI monopoly by U.S. firms.
• The market's reaction to President Trump's 2 April 2025 "Liberation Day" tariffs, which prompted the index to plunge by 688 points through 8 April 2025.

Altogether, these two events caused the S&P 500 to drop by 1,161.38 points between 19 February 2025 and 8 April 2025. And had the market chaos unleashed by them continued, the period of order in the stock market that began after 29 December 2023 would have quickly come to a definitive end.

Except it didn't. Stock prices rebounded so quickly that the plunge became little more than the equivalent of a statistical outlier. The following chart mapping the relationship between the value of the S&P 500 and the index' underlying trailing year dividends per share illustrates that remarkable development.

Two things combined to preserve order in the U.S. stock market. First, the Trump administration quickly adapted its global tariff policies to reduce their damaging potential. Second, the AI bubble reflated, as the valuations of firms involved in the technology behind artificial intelligence systems recovered and then reached even higher highs.

Through 14 October 2025, we find the recent drop in stock prices associated with the reignition of the U.S.-China tariff war following China's provocative attempt to assert monopoly status over rare earth material processing and the Trump administration's reaction to it would have to become much deeper to break the established period of order in the market. In the short term, the index' 20-day moving average would need to drop below about $5,500 by the end of 2025 to qualify as a definitive breakdown of order in the U.S. stock market.

Given that the S&P 500 just recorded an all time high of 6,753.72 on 8 October 2025, we'll observe that if such a breakdown in order occurs within this timeframe, there will be no mistaking it for what it is.

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "Conceptual art of the S&P 500 quickly moving from a period of order to chaos and back again".